Prospect and risk evaluation

The Prospect Analysis module in Geocap performs montecarlo simulation of recoverable oil and gas volumes in a reservoir model. All parameters connected to calculating recoverable oil and gas can be modeled as uncertainty distributions. The prospect analysis module will calculate a volumetric distribution for recoverable oil and gas instead of just one volume number.

Brief explanation of prospect analysis

Recoverable oil and gas are calculated according to the formula:
V_recoverable_oil/gas = Vr * Por * (1-Sw) *Ng * Bo * Rec
Vr = rock volume
Por = porosity
Sw = water saturation
Ng = Net to gross ratio
Bo = Oil/Gas expansion factor
Rec = recovery factor

The rock volume distribution curve itself can either be digitized or can be generated directly from the structure of the prospect using distribution parameters for all modeling features like contact planes, reservoir thickness and structure size.

The Risk Analysis module is an extension of the prospect analysis module and will do risk analysis of the prospect. In principle risk factors can be anything that sets the prospect under risk, even hurricanes and war. In practical case one limits the risk to more feasible factors that are common for all reservoirs.

Brief explanation of risk analysis.

Prospect risking uses three or six parameters in the formulae.

  • Prospect risking using three parameters:
    Prospect risking = SR * TR* RR
    SR = Source Risk
    TR = Trap Risk
    RR = Reservoir Risk
  • Prospect risking using six parameters:
    Prospect risking = SOR * MR * TPR * TER *RPR * RQR
    SQR = Source Presence Risk
    MR = Migration Risk
    TPR = Trap Presence Risk
    Ng = Trap Efficiency Risk
    Bo = Reservoir Presence Risk
    RQR = Reservoir Quality Risk

Gallery: Prospect and risk evaluation